In the official results announced Thursday, Doe Sherriff of the CDC defeated Clemenceau B. Urey of the Unity Party after obtaining 58,384, 56.0% of the total valid votes cast of 104,248. Urey who trailed throughout the tallying process of the provisional result managed 45,864 votes, 44.0% of the total votes cast. James Fromayan, Chairman of the National Elections Commission of Liberia (NEC) announcing the final results of the runoff by-election officially declared the CDC candidate Geraldine as the winner.

Low turnout hurt UP More

James Fromoyan, head of the National Elections Commission announces results Thursday. Chairman Fromayan disclosed that the runoff election recorded a much higher turnout than the first round with 105,800 electorates casting ballots out of the total of 473,193 voting populace of Montserrado County. The turnout out represents 22.36% of the total registered voters for Montserrado County as per the record of October 2005 general and presidential elections.

Entering the second round, both candidates, realizing what was at stake sought desperately to win endorsements from defeated opponents – eight in all who made deals and promises in a bid to make an impact in the second round.

As the elections drew near, the momentum appeared to be on the side of the CDC candidate. From Duala to West Point; from the Paynesville Red Light District to Sinkor, Doe-Sheriff pulled huge crowds as many began to sense that a victory was within grasp of the female candidate. But election day proved that the huge crowds pulled by Doe-Sherriff did not translate into massive turnout. Complicating matters, the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare held a Yellow Fever vaccination campaign on the same day of the run-off election.

Daniel Belleh, a presiding officer at the William V.S. Tubman High School said the vaccination drive was a huge factor in the low turnout. “The people told me they prefer to take vaccine than to vote.” Emma Cooper Doe, an election supervisor at the Antoinette Tubman Stadium voting center disagrees: “Honestly, there has always been lower numbers during the second round than the first rounds for all of the by-elections that we have conducted.”

Prior to the polls, both candidates made extra efforts to ensure that their supporters show up to vote.  Said Urey: “This time, we are sensitizing the voters, trying to educate them and let them know what is at stake, that they have power, voting power to make a change in their communities and in their lives, that they must take advantage of that opportunity because if things go wrong, they will only have themselves to blame. So we are out there campaigning vigorously and we will do what we can to make sure that the voters go out this time and vote.”

Why Urey Lost – ‘Stuck up’ label hurt UP

Regardless of the reasons for the low turnout, the ruling party appears to have suffered more and the party’s candidate made it that much clear after casting his vote Tuesday: “This low turnout shows that our Liberian people have this catchy feeling towards exercising their franchise.  Some of them are cynical and this is not good for our democracy”, he lamented. Urey however refused to attribute the low turnout to the NEC’s poor civic education but rather blamed politicians who he said need to find a way in strategizing voters to encourage them to participate in the democratic process. The UP candidate, shortly after casting his vote, in a last ditch effort to rally support of voters said, “They need to use their vote which has power! They need to use them wisely so that when things go bad, you don’t have to blame yourselves”.

LOSING EFFORT

Observers say much of the blame for Urey’s defeat stem’s from the candidate’s inability to brush off the perception held by many that he was out of touch with the voters. But Urey explained prior to voting day that voters and critics had him all wrong.  “It is impossible for me to meet and engage people individually to erase that perception. There are many persons who can give testimonies as to how I met them, interacted with them and touched their lives in various ways.”

Observers say much of the blame for Urey’s defeat stem’s from the candidate’s inability to brush off the perception held by many that he was out of touch with the voters. But Urey explained prior to voting day that voters and critics had him all wrong.  “It is impossible for me to meet and engage people individually to erase that perception. There are many persons who can give testimonies as to how I met them, interacted with them and touched their lives in various ways.”

Urey says people who follow him know his work and know how he relates to people. “In fact as a member of the Lions Club, every White Cane Day we are involved in holding of the hands of the blind people and marching through the streets of Monrovia, assisting them, visiting them and all of that. Of course, some people don’t notice that; then when they see me doing that during election period, they say he is politicking, not knowing that every year I do those things. But there are some people who have followed me and who know who I am and how I interact with people. There are some people who also know the truth but because of politics, they try to paint me in a different picture - like claiming that I wear gloves to shake people hands.”

That perception also caught the eye of Urey’s opponent, Doe-Sheriff, who told FrontPageAfrica that Urey was far from the reality of the ordinary Liberian. "This is a man who does not care for people, this is a man who is conservative, and I am telling you, they got me, Geraldine Doe Sheriff-somebody that shares the beliefs of the ordinary people, somebody that has been there, somebody that played soccer to educate herself."

Besides the glove-wearing perception, Urey also had to fight off perceptions created from a campaign after which a photo published in a local newspaper showed the ruling party’s candidate holding his nose. The action led many to label Urey a man who believed ordinary Liberians were stink. In his own defense Urey denied the allegations.

The candidate told FrontPageAfrica: “I mean, you can take a still camera and do anything with it. Someone can be holding their face and you take their photo and the camera is still - and it captures their nose, it doesn’t say anything. I recalled that day -  it was even before the campaign started. It was a rainy day and I was standing in front of an audience on the front porch of the Monrovia City Hall so I probably was wiping my face from the rain and someone with a still camera who wanted to be mischievous or whatever took my picture. But people who know me and know the places I have been know that I always refer to what they call the serenity prayer which I refer to, the portion which reads: “Lord grant me the  serenity to accept those things which I cannot change, the courage to change those which I can and the wisdom to know the difference”.

Why Geraldine won  

Critics of Urey believe the photograph led to Urey’s political demise. The candidate in a bid to reshape his image dropped Morris Dukuly as his media relations officer and tapped former Director General of the  Cabinet Medina Wesseh. But while Urey, backed by a team of public relations gurus, who boast of being the best around, appeared unable to erase the negative public’s persona of him, Doe-Sheriff appeared to handle her own public relations nightmare with ease. Days before the elections, the candidate was involved in an apparent  drunk-driving accident and was taken to the police station. But despite the media coverage of the incident, Doe-Sheriff rejected several inquiries to address the matter, choosing instead to blame the incident on the ruling party’s desperate attempt to tarnish her image and campaign. “A  man is drowning, so he holds to anything, so that is baseless, they thought they would have had me on the defense but I am not responding to something that is negligible, so that is not an issue," the candidate declared.

Supporters of CDC believe that the ruling party may have bolstered Doe-Sheriff’s candidacy by tapping a man to run for a seat previously occupied by a woman, the late Hannah Brent. The complications, observers say could factor in the ruling party’s political future.

Ruling Party’s 2011 prospects difficult to gauge

Sirleaf, who until now has been mute about seeking a second term has not ruled out doing so.

Celebrating her 71st birthday in the southeastern city of Greenville, Sinoe County, recently, Sirleaf declared that she has not ruled out running for re-election in 2011. Presidential Press Secretary Cyrus Badio said at the time that the president has a constitutional right to run or not to run.

“What the president has said is nothing new. She has said that her primary pre-occupation right now is the fact that our citizens need jobs, our citizens need food, our citizens need security, they need health security, they need education, and when it gets to that point where it is necessary for her to make her decision she will make that decision based on all of the factors involved,” he said. In July this year, Liberia’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) recommended in its final report that President Sirleaf and 50 others be banned for 30 years from holding public office because they supported warring factions during Liberia’s civil war.

What’s next for Unity Party, Sirleaf?

In the aftermath of the results of the run-off, Sirleaf and the ruling party are now left to contemplate the party’s future. Would the results impact Sirleaf’s rethinking her strategy – or plans for 2011? The margin of victory has no doubt given the opposition hope that the incumbent is vulnerable. Voter apathy too suggests the potential that the opposition could capitalized on the mistakes of the run-off election many have described as a litmus test for 2011.

At least one opposition member, a first round participant, Darius Dillon of the Liberty Party is pointing to the CDC win as an indictment on the ruling party’s policies. “This verdict suggests that the domestic policies of the ruling government are not being positively felt by our people. Our people have rendered their verdict against the increasingly high level corruption, lack of job opportunities, selective justice, nepotism, cronyism, and other societal vices to which this government continues to play a deliberate blind eye or lacks the will to tackle or alleviate. This is also a win for the “opposition bloc”. I hope that the “opposition bloc” can now clearly read the “writing on the wall” that “TOGETHER, WE CAN WIN”. More importantly, I feel particularly elated because Madam Doe-Sherif's victory falls in straight line with my vision that it is about time that a new breed of generational and visionary leaders take over political leadership in Liberia” 

For the CDC candidate, Doe-Sheriff,” the ruling party is already in trouble – and the writing is already on the wall. “They need to be thinking about what plan they have to come back,” she says.  Some observers suggest that – with the by-elections triumph, George Weah’s Congress for Democratic Change appears to have the momentum going into the 2011 season, but whether they have the ruling party on the ropes may still be too early to say. Supporters of CDC are already bragging that judging from the margin of victory, the party, riding on Weah’s shoulders, appear to have at least won some boasting rights – if only for a short while, as the 2011 season looms, and Liberian perennial presidential and other political hopefuls walk into the shadowy unknown of post-war Liberia’s unpredictable political future.